Game 12: Indiana Hoosiers v. Purdue Boilermakers (preview).
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Nov 20, 2009 1:21 PM EST
8 comments
2009 record: 4-7 (3-4)
2008 record: 4-8
2008 Sagarin: 78
2009 Sagarin: 78 (IU is 91)
Coach: Danny Hope (first year, 4-7)
Series: Purdue leads 69-36-6
TV: 3: 30 p.m., Big Ten Network
Blogs: Hammer and Rails, Boiled Sports
IU and Purdue renew their annual rivalry in Bloomington tomorrow. As I noted earlier in the week, Purdue dominated the series during the Tiller era. While IU never beat Tiller in West Lafayette and played only one competitive game there (a 28-19 loss in 2006), the series was more respectable in Bloomington. Four of the last last five Bucket games played in Bloomington have been competitive (IU wins in 2001 and 2007, Purdue wins in 1999 and 2003). Purdue comfortably won the 2005 game. Of course, last year, IU lost 62-10. The IU players have talked about it quite a bit, as have Purdue fans, who seem to think that a blowout win last year somehow innoculates them from defeat this season (don't tell them what happened after IU's 45 point win in 1988, or after Purdue's 37 point win in 1995).
Ultimately, history will not decide this game. How do the 2009 teams measure up?
| INDIANA |
category | PURDUE |
| 356 (74) | total offense | 397 (51) |
| 407 (94) | total defense | 369 (70) |
| 24 (87) | scoring offense | 27 (65) |
| 29 (87) | scoring defense | 30 (92) |
| 124.7 (76) | pass efficiency | 125 (72) |
| 135 (86) | pass efficiency defense |
114 (32) |
| 246 (35) | pass offense | 259 (30) |
| 245 (95) | pass defense | 197 (37) |
| 109 (83) | run offense | 137 (73) |
| 162 (82) | run defense | 171 (92) |
| 1 (8) | turnover margin | -.8 (107) |
| 1.9 (60) | sacks | 2.64 (24) |
| 1.2 (25) | sacks allowed | 1.45 (42) |
It's very striking how statistically similar the teams are. Both teams rely heavily on their passing games for yards, but neither pass offense is a model of efficiency. Really, the only categories that differ markedly are pass defense/pass efficiency defense (Purdue's is good, IU's isn't), and turnovers (IU has been one of the most turnover-blessed teams in the country, and Purdue has been one of the most cursed). While not in the table, Purdue's rushing offense has been better than IU's on a per-play basis (4.3 to 3.6). According to Sagarin, Purdue has the #31 schedule in Division I-A and IU is #59.
Who are the individuals to watch?
- Purdue QB Joey Elliott has been a big part of Purdue's offense, and he is averaging 256 yards per game and has thrown 18 touchdowns. On the other hand, he has thrown 13 interceptions and is completing 60.2 percent of his passes, a solid but not overwhelming number. His numbers are pretty similar to Ben Chappell's (Chappell has is completing 63 percent of his passes and has 15/13 TD/INT).
- Ralph Bolden has been Purdue's primary rushing threat. He has run for 931 yards and 9 TD and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Freshmanjunior receiver Keith Smith (the details of my cluelessness is outlined in the comments) has been a pleasant surprise for Purdue, catching 86 passes for 1015 yards.
"Throw out the records" is the cliche thrown around regarding rivalry games, but that's not necessary this year. These teams are in the same ballpark. Certainly, Purdue has modestly better statistics against a tougher schedule, and the win over Ohio State far exceeds anything IU has accomplished. Aside from that game, however, their profiles are pretty similar, and I can't say that any result would surprise me.
It's not going to rain tomorrow. We didn't gain an unfair motivational advantage from the death of our coach. In other words, unlike in our two wins over Tiller, if IU wins tomorrow, Purdue might have to admit that it counts.
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"Keith Smith has been a pleasant surprise"
Not really a surprise. Phil Steele had him preseaon 1st team All Big Ten.
Ever Grateful. Ever True.
Smith is a junior too
Came to Purdue as a quarterback, played safety as a freshman, was converted to receiver last year.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
Hell, I’m out of it. I thought he as one of Hope’s whiz-bang freshmen from Florida. “Keith Smith is good.” That’s what I should have said.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Nov 20, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Funny you mention that
Of all the freshman receivers he brought in from Florida only one has one catch on the season. Antavian Edison had a 14 yard touchdown catch in the opener. That’s it from that group. Everyone else is redshirting currently, and we have a ton of new receivers coming next year. should be interesting.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
And for a nice touch to my reporting today, he only caught TWELVE FREAKING BALLS in the IU game last year.
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Nov 20, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
blame it on basketball season
We’re probably both beginning our shift in thinking there.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
wow
It’s not going to rain tomorrow. We didn’t gain an unfair motivational advantage from the death of our coach. In other words, unlike in our two wins over Tiller, if IU wins tomorrow, Purdue might have to admit that it counts.
Who said those two wins in twelve years didn’t count? Are we not allowed to mention it rained torrentially one time? And I actually take serious issue with your implication that we claimed you gained an “unfair motivational advantage” from Hep dying. We’ve never been anything but respectful with regard to Hep and the way his memory lifted that team.
So knock that shit off. You’re being petty.
[insert prophetic yet obnoxiously haughty and annoying quote here]
Again, this is rich from the guy whose blog (can’t remember if it was you specifically) that contends that IU fans disliked Mike Davis because we don’t like black people. I can’t remember if you guys have ever said anything about it, but I’ve heard from plenty of Purdue fans, online and off, that the rain in 2001 somehow makes the game asterisk-worthy. And, the jerk Purdue fan sitting behind me at the 2007 game said, “hey ref, you can’t give them all the calls just because their coach died!”
The Crimson Quarry, SB Nation's Indiana Hoosiers blog
by John M (The Crimson Quarry) on Nov 23, 2009 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
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